Value Capture in Commercial Open Source: Services, Funding Paths, and the FLOSS Value Network (Europe, 2026)¶
Stefane Fermigier (Abilian) · sf@abilian.com
Draft working paper v0.6, 2026-09-03. Conceptual synthesis with a verified formal core; every proposition carries a proof, a numeric cross-check, and a Monte-Carlo robustness report; the funding-path reading is stated with the liquidity condition under which it holds; no firm-level estimate is reported.
Abstract¶
Most accounts of the commercial open-source sector are written about its most visible minority, venture-backed product vendors relicensing against hyperscalers. This paper starts from the service majority, whose share of the sector it treats as a hypothesis to be measured, and builds on the value-network theory of FLOSS business models of Jullien, Viseur and Zimmermann (2025), in which a project's value lies in managing the software flow and the 3A services (assurance, adaptation, assistance) are sold to a segmented user base. It adds one axis the theory does not treat, the firm's funding path, reduced in a two-period model to a discount parameter. Four verified results follow. Contribution to the project has a closed form that rises with patience, a reading that holds where the self-funded firm's cash constraint is slack and is bounded by outside capital where it binds. Enclosure by relicensing has a unique patience threshold; a community able to fork shrinks the region where it pays, and erosion of the service margin or slowing growth widens it, which is when the visible relicensings happened. A heterogeneous population sorts into an open-service and an enclosed-product cluster on patience and conversion economics. The 2018 blueprint of the sector is revisited and the 2026 predictions are mapped to a survey instrument; no estimate is reported.
About this paper¶
| Programme | OSS economics |
| Genre | Draft working paper |
| Version | v0.6 |
| Date | 2026-09-03 |
| Full text | |
| Plain-language explainer | The other ninety percent |
Cite this paper¶
Fermigier, S. (2026). Value Capture in Commercial Open Source: Services, Funding Paths, and the FLOSS Value Network (Europe, 2026).
Draft working paper v0.6, Abilian Econ Lab.
https://econ.lab.abilian.com/papers/value-capture/