Adopting Open Source in 2026: A UTAUT Model Grounded in the FLOSS User Typology¶

Stefane Fermigier (Abilian) · sf@abilian.com

Draft working paper v0.6, 2026-09-03. Conceptual and research-design: no survey data; every hypothesis is specified and none is estimated.

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Abstract¶

The adoption of open source has been studied with the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), but usually for a representative user, whereas the economics of open source treats adopters as a typology. This paper adapts UTAUT to open-source adoption and grounds its segmentation in the value-network user typology of Jullien, Viseur & Zimmermann (2025). Adopters differ by capability (Innovative users can translate needs into requirements and write code, Frontier users can specify but not implement, No-skill users can do neither) and by need (Control, Lock-out, Adaptable, Low-cost). We keep the four core UTAUT constructs, add a small set of three open-source-specific constructs (community support, transparency and auditability, and strategic alignment carrying sovereignty), and add the two 2026 institutional moderators: regulatory perceived risk (the Cyber Resilience Act and AI Act, mitigated by commercial assurance) and sovereignty. The central design claim is that the driver weights differ across capability segments, so that the acceptance structure varies across segments. The claim is registered on within-segment ratios of driver weights, the quantity it is about. The estimation is a multi-group structural model with paired dyadic interviews. Estimation is future work; the contribution of this draft is the model and its segmentation. Whether AI assistance shifts an adopter's capability is a separate question, out of scope here.

JEL: L17, O33, D22, M15, C83.

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Fermigier, S. (2026). Adopting Open Source in 2026: A UTAUT Model Grounded in the FLOSS User Typology.
Draft working paper v0.6, Abilian Econ Lab.
https://econ.lab.abilian.com/papers/stratified-adoption/