The Contribution Criterion: Scoring Policies and Organisations by Their Effect on System-Level Digital Sovereignty¶

Stefane Fermigier (Abilian) · sf@abilian.com

Draft working paper v0.7, 2026-09-23. The composition result is an instantiation of a classical mechanism, with closed form, ledger thresholds and suite; the model states which supplier the adoption share counts and which roles it takes from the source. Two of the worked cases and the lemma's application to a cyclic map remain to be tightened.

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Abstract¶

Every deployed sovereignty instrument scores a node: an organisation's own resilience, a supplier's own posture, an offer's own compliance level. This paper defines the complementary object: the contribution of a policy or an organisation, the change in the system's sovereignty stock under a stated counterfactual replacement of the entity's realized actions. Four rules discipline the definition: only realized mechanisms score, a sign verdict requires agreement across the canonical counterfactuals, conduct is scored over a stated window, and every claim inherits the weakest evidence tier on the path.

The formal core is classical: in a layered adoption market with consistency effects, the equilibrium under-adopts relative to the adopter-welfare optimum, the textbook network-externality mechanism (Katz and Shapiro 1985; Farrell and Saloner 1985; the lineage runs to Rohlfs 1974). The paper adds the closed form of the wedge in this reference parameterization, $2\gamma \int_c^1 a\, dG$ evaluated at the equilibrium cutoff. It also adds exact thresholds for when the result holds under a fuller welfare ledger: a local threshold at the equilibrium and a corner threshold at universal adoption, both verified. The structural reading is that node-scoped instruments cannot register the wedge, because it lives on other nodes, whichever way the scores point. A sign-transfer lemma with explicit hypotheses connects the computable definition to the applied screens. Three worked cases exercise them with stated, sign-checked counterfactuals. A suite-bundling conduct scores negative, provisionally, through a mechanism invisible to any node instrument, with one countervailing lower-tier path recorded. The commitments ending it score positive, provisionally, with a receipted timing discount. For a full-funding maintenance programme, just where the standard leverage statistic returns nothing, the criterion withholds a verdict until the programme's eligibility rule is verified as applied.

Keywords: digital sovereignty, policy evaluation, contribution analysis, network externalities, procurement, bundling.

JEL: F52, L86, D62, O25.

The worked case's sub-map: seven factors and ten signed edges, each at the tier of its evidence. The bundling conduct scores negative through a mechanism invisible to every node-scoped instrument.

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Fermigier, S. (2026). The Contribution Criterion: Scoring Policies and Organisations by Their Effect on System-Level Digital Sovereignty.
Draft working paper v0.7, Abilian Econ Lab.
https://econ.lab.abilian.com/papers/contribution-criterion/