Sovereignty as a Flow: Capture and the Durability of European Technology¶

Stefane Fermigier (Abilian) · sf@abilian.com

Draft working paper v0.5, 2026-08-04. Complete draft; causal identification and a blind re-coding of the governance-lock and mixed-outcome variables remain open.

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Abstract¶

European sovereignty instruments assess a firm's nationality at a point in time: at qualification, at award, at labeling. Control, we argue, is a flow. A European technology firm's control leaves European hands through four mechanisms (acquisition, private-equity buyout, an infrastructure deal that routes its stack onto foreign clouds, or a US listing and redomicile), so a "European tech" label is a snapshot of a liquid cap table.

We document this with a sourced registry of 33 capture cases (Nuxeo, DeepL, Aleph Alpha, Arm, SUSE, Software AG, and others) and then ask what resists it. On a defined universe of 125 prominent European technology firms (2005–2025), classified by ownership structure and outcome, a governance lock (a foundation, steward-ownership, founder super-voting, a golden share, or state control) is associated with survival as European in 89% of resolved cases against 55% without a lock (capture 11% against 45%; odds ratio 6.6, φ = 0.31, Fisher exact p = 0.002). The mechanism is specific and the falsifiers sharpen it: not one of the 27 governance-locked firms was taken over against its will. A control lock defeats unwilling acquisition; it does not stop a founder choosing a US listing for capital, nor insolvency, and dispersed-ownership firms can also survive on scale (SAP, Adyen, Amadeus).

The policy implication is a reframing. On this universe's record, subsidising a dispersed-ownership champion buys an asset with a 45% historical capture rate. Durable European control is structural: a control lock, domestic capital deep enough that firms need not list abroad, and scale or a forkable commons for the rest.

Keywords: digital sovereignty, mergers and acquisitions, ownership structure, steward-ownership, industrial policy, technological autonomy.

JEL: F52, G34, O25, L26, F23.

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Cite this paper¶

Fermigier, S. (2026). Sovereignty as a Flow: Capture and the Durability of European Technology.
Draft working paper v0.5, Abilian Econ Lab.
https://econ.lab.abilian.com/papers/capture/